The financial market reduced the inflation forecast for 2022 from 7.15% to 7.11%, according to the most recent Focus Bulletin released this Monday (8) by the Central Bank. The survey records the expectations of several institutions for the main economic indicators of the country.
This is the sixth consecutive reduction in the projection of the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for this year. As for 2023, the Inflation estimate rose to 5.36%. For 2024 and 2025, the forecasts are 3.3% and 3%, respectively.
In June inflation rose to 0.67%. As a result, the IPCA accumulates an increase of 5.49% in the year and 11.89% in 12 months. The data of july inflation should be released this Tuesday (9) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The projection for the growth of the Brazilian economy this year rose from 1.97% to 1.98%, the sixth consecutive increase. For 2023, the expectation is that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 0.4%. In 2024 and 2025, the financial market projects GDP growth of 1.7% and 2%, respectively.
The forecast for the Selic remained stable at 13.75% per year. By the end of 2023, the estimate is that the base rate will drop to 11% per year. And for 2024 and 2025, the forecast is for the Selic to be 8% per year and 7.5% per year, respectively.
In the foreign exchange market, the expectation for the dollar rate remained at R$ 5.20 for the end of 2022. For the end of 2023, the forecast is that the American currency will also remain at the same level.
